Geopolitics & Defense
Geopolitics, conflicts and defense: Ukraine and Russia, the Middle East, China and Taiwan, NATO, military industry, sanctions, trade and energy security.
About this list
This reading list brings together items from the sources selected for Geopolitics & Defense. Open each item at its original source for the complete article, episode or video. This is a selection of current coverage, not a complete archive.
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The End of Black Sea Shipping || Peter Zeihan
The Chinese are laying the groundwork for a new overseas military base in Laos. What makes this so special? Well, it would be the first foreign base that China can reliably supply without heavy dependence on other countries. And it would enable greater power projection across mainland Southeast Asia. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4du6iUk
Iran’s Long War: A Conversation With Ali Vaez and Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar
Nearly eight months since it began, the war in Iran has settled into a grim stalemate. Two essays in the new issue of Foreign Affairs consider just how long this stalemate could continue—and what decision-makers in Tehran think they can achieve in the coming months. In “The New Forever War,” Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group argues that Iran prefers deadlock to any plausible compromise with Washington.
Après Trump
Three hundred thousand tons of diesel (tons, not barrels) is what Trump says he extracted from Putin. The deal is easy to mock, but it’s worth understanding why it happened. Diesel is at record highs, and every European leader publicly condemning the move is privately relieved somebody finally told Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries. What the 5D-chess crowd misses is simpler: Ukraine and Iran are now the same war, because diesel trades globally and two kinetic conflicts are squeezing the same supply.
What Happens When India's Water Runs Out? || Peter Zeihan
While the fallout from the Ogallala Aquifer running dry will be rough, it's nothing in comparison to what will happen in the Punjab region of northern India. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hGM643
Defending the Homefront from Cheap Drones || Peter Zeihan
It's one thing for high-tech, expensive strike systems to break through defenses, but when cheap and simple drones can inflict widespread damage...that's a whole other can of worms. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan
Ep 214. France Burns, Britain Borrows, and AI Takes Over
From tear gassing student protestors in France to Britain’s chaotic party conferences with their controversial motions, Jason and Jane ask whether Western democracies can still deliver anything positive for the next generation. They take on Labour’s spending promises, the Tory’s bizzarre tax cut pledges, the Greens’ Zionism is Racism controversy and the growing power of bond markets over elected governments.
How Diesel Could Shape the Ukraine War || Peter Zeihan
A U.S. diesel ban could have reverberating consequences for the Russian energy sector, following the sustained attacks by Ukraine. Russia is now relying on places like Kazakhstan, Belarus, and India to supplement its fuel supplies. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/47FFZXC
Trust the Process!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Scott Bessent really said “trust the process.” Bub, do you know the process? It's the Philadelphia 76ers deliberately being the worst team in basketball for half a decade. Pick a better sports metaphor. Anyway, here’s a conspiracy theory nobody on Wall Street will touch - - - - - The Fed isn’t hiking because of inflation - actual inflation is coming down. It’s hiking because economic agents have started expecting American incoherence as a permanent condition, and that’s the macroeconomic AIDS. They’re targeting oil prices.
Middle East Security, Long-Term US Strategy, and the Big Picture | Q&A with George Friedman
Are we living through an unprecedented collapse of the global order, or is this just another turbulent chapter in the geopolitical cycle? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to answer subscriber questions on the state of the world. Topics include the future of the Middle East and US strategy, the value of “ineffective” diplomatic maneuvers, and a big-picture evaluation of global economic vulnerabilities.
What’s Next for Iraq? || Peter Zeihan
U.S. troops have withdrawn from Iraq, putting an end to American military presence that began following 9/11. So, what's next for Iraq? Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:
Can America Stay Ahead of China on AI?
It is well known that at least part of Washington’s reluctance to regulate artificial intelligence comes from wanting to make sure the United States stays ahead of China. But what exactly are the two countries racing for? Matt Sheehan, a co-director of the China AI Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins FP’s Ravi Agrawal to explain the countries’ very different definitions of winning and why U.S. models are only months ahead of their Chinese competitors.
Will Putin Join the Miami G20 Summit? || Peter Zeihan
The Trump administration has extended an invitation to Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami. There are several things to watch for, so let's break it down. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3U1mhCA
Russia’s Widening War on Europe: A Conversation With Julianne Smith
Since the start of the war in Ukraine almost five years ago, Russia has mounted ever more aggressive attacks in Europe, far from the battlefield. These attacks were long talked about as a form of “hybrid warfare.” But as Julianne Smith, the former U.S. ambassador to NATO, notes in a new piece in Foreign Affairs, they have reached a level of risk and flagrancy where that label may no longer apply.
Ep 213 The Democratic Identity ahead of the Midterms with Erin Petrey
Jason is joined by former Kentucky congressional candidate Erin Petrie, board member of Bourbon Women and active DAR member, to dissect the ideological clash at the heart of the American left. They discuss whether progressive slogans like "abolish ICE" drive moderate voters into Trumpism, how Citizens United and billionaire donors have created a pay-to-play system and why politicians in Washington fail to address the affordability crisis in rural America.
Russia’s Failure, Poland’s Rise, and the End of an Era
Is Eastern Europe finally free from the crushing dominance of foreign powers? In this recent ClubGPF Live Discussion, GPF analyst Ridvan Bari Urcosta joins GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss the diminished power of Russia, the obsolescence of Cold War geopolitical frameworks, and what this shift means for Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe. This ClubGPF Live Discussion was recorded on September 15, 2026. To learn more about ClubGPF, including more free audio and video clips, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/join-clubgpf-bundle/.
Ukraine Finally Pushes the Frontline Back || Peter Zeihan
Ukraine's new memory drones are beginning to reshape battlefield tactics. For the first time in this war, we're seeing the frontline consistently move in the other direction. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan
From Amaliqa to Houthis, here are main armed groups fighting in Yemen
The Saudi-backed government is supported by several armed groups with varied histories, while the Iran-backed Houthis are largely unified under one command.
What’s Freezing the U.S. Housing Market?
A hot, AI-driven economy certainly plays a role.
SpaceX Deploys 26 Satellites with New Starship || Peter Zeihan
SpaceX has completed its first (mostly) successful Starship test. The ship was able to reach orbit, deploy 26 Starlink satellites, and return home. And while there were some hiccups (engine failure on launch and reentry, as well as a crash landing) along the way, this was a step in the right direction. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hfVFXq
Ep 212. The Rampaging of the Russian Bears and Welcome to ‘War Putinism’ With Mark Galeotti
What exactly is “War Putinism” — and how long can it survive? Jason is joined by Russia expert Mark Galeotti, host of In Moscow’s Shadows, to get inside the increasingly militarised, kleptocratic system Putin has built. They discuss Russia’s recent Duma elections, whether the war economy is devouring Russia’s future, how corruption changes when elites stop believing the system will last forever, and why Russia is so effective at exploiting divisions in Western societies.
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