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Credit growth weakens further in September
Per central bank (PBoC) data released October 14, outstanding total social financing (TSF) expanded 7.1% y/y in September – its slowest ever pace – down from 7.2% in August. Growth was driven by bond issuance. Net new issuance of government bonds was RMB 1.54 trillion, up 29.2% from a yea
BYD to quadruple European workforce by 2030
On October 12, BYD executive vice president Stella Li told Bloomberg that the company plans to quadruple its European workforce to over 40,000 employees by 2030. Some context: BYD’s European sales are booming, with new car registrations reaching 234,100 units through August, a 144% y/y increase (ACE
Beijing slows automakers’ roll on launching new car models
On October 10, the industry ministry (MIIT) and three other regulators jointly released a draft notice tightening testing oversight of new car models. Some context: Chinese automakers collectively released a whopping 542 new models in H1, with firms cramming in new features and upgrades to stand out
Local government bond issuance surges on the back of policy bank seed capital
Local governments are finally issuing more special-purpose bonds (SPBs) for infrastructure. The data: In September, local governments issued RMB 620.4 billion of SPBs, up 50.2% y/y. Notably, 58.9% of SPBs issued went toward infrastructure (excluding land buybacks) – up from 38.3% in August and 33.6
China and North Korea open Yalu River bridge
Twelve years of Chinese patience just got a ribbon-cutting. On October 15, Premier Li Qiang and North Korean Premier Pak Thae Song opened the New Yalu River Bridge by video link. (Xinhua) ICYDK: The Yalu River marks the border between China and North Korea. China takes roughly 98% of North Korea’s
Tax specialist to become Henan governor
Last month Wang Lujin, 57, was appointed acting governor of Henan, replacing Wang Kai, 64, who will retire. Wang Lujin is expected to be formally elected governor soon. This will be his first full ministerial-level post. A little bit about Wang: A tax specialist, he taught at Zhongnan University
Podcast | Beijing’s quiet deleveraging push
For the first time in recent memory, a senior Chinese economic official is really pushing the idea that China needs to control its debt-to-GDP ratio. In a recent Qiushi essay, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng laid out why credit growth has to slow. Trivium made this call back in July, wh
EU-China talks conclude with potential hybrid vehicle deal – and a lot more dialogue
EU-China trade talks concluded in Beijing this week – with a headline deal on hybrid vehicles but few concrete details. Talks between commerce minister Wang Wentao and EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič wrapped up October 9, producing a joint statement and a 16-point consensus list. The headline
PBoC says it won’t appreciate the RMB to rebalance trade
Stop asking for the RMB to appreciate – we’re not going to do it. That’s the message from China’s central bank (PBoC) in a short essay published October 8 in both Chinese and English. Some context: EU politicians are demanding the RMB appreciate to help tackle the surge of Chinese imports threaten
Beijing authorizes RMB 550 billion in local bonds to bolster growth
The finance ministry (MoF) has authorized local governments to issue RMB 550 billion of additional debt in Q4. The announcement – issued October 9 – says the debt will draw down unused bond quotas from previous years. Some context: Every March, Beijing allocates local governments a quota of bonds.
What China’s provincial leadership reshuffle signals for the 2027 Politburo
China’s latest provincial reshuffle is not likely to impact who joins the Politburo in 2027. In late September, six provincial-level regions got new top officials – Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Anhui, Henan, and Fujian. What everyone's wondering: Do appointments now – roughly a year before the 2027 Party
US issues first fine under China outbound investment rules
On Wednesday, the US Treasury announced its first penalty under the Outbound Investment Security Program: a USD 200,000 fine against Amidi, LLC, parent of Silicon Valley accelerator Plug and Play Tech Center. The details: Amidi’s Chinese fund subsidiary invested roughly USD 92,000 in Shanghai embodi
EU-China trade roundup: Tensions tick up ahead of talks
While the rest of us were enjoying China's National Day holiday, the commerce ministry (MofCom) was gearing up for EU trade talks – slated to wrap up tomorrow, October 9. In the meantime, here's an overview of key trade developments over the past few days: MofCom launched an antidumping investigati
PMI signals manufacturing improved in September
September's purchasing managers index (PMI) data point to improving manufacturing conditions and a resurgence in inflationary pressures. A quick refresher: Headline PMI figures reflect month-on-month changes in manufacturing conditions as reported by companies. Readings above 50 indicate improvement
Beijing eases up – Making sense of the economic support package – Trivium China
Make no mistake, Beijing is pivoting. When the Politburo met on July 30, it called for introducing "incremental" policies, making "existing" measures more effective, and "accelerating" fiscal spending. The measures released last week go far beyond that. On September 28-29, Beijing released a raft of
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