Foreign Affairs
International affairs publication
- 10 articles
- Last published
- Publishes in English
Analysis and commentary on international relations, security and global politics.
Latest from Foreign Affairs
10 items
The Middle East’s Quiet Liberal Revolution
Drawing on repeated surveys in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, the author argues that support for liberal values grew between 2000 and 2020. The surveys measured expressive individualism, gender equality, and secular politics, finding declines in support for Islamic government and sharia alongside increased support for secular governance and women’s equality. Egypt saw sharp gains in support for separating religion and politics and for Western-style government. In Turkey, national identification rose as Muslim identification and frequent mosque attendance declined. The article suggests religious and authoritarian domination may have helped produce these attitudes, while noting that value shifts can precede but do not guarantee institutional change.
China’s Next Frontier
China’s successful rocket-booster recoveries and expanding commercial space sector signal a growing challenge to U.S. leadership, the article argues. Supported by state investment, Chinese companies are increasing launches and developing satellite constellations that may compete with Starlink. At the same time, China is building military space capabilities, including reconnaissance satellites and tools that could disrupt or damage U.S. systems. Because U.S. forces depend heavily on satellites and the domestic launch industry relies heavily on SpaceX, the article warns that disruption could carry serious consequences. It recommends investment in alternative navigation and communications technologies and a more competitive U.S. launch sector.
The Global AI Bust
This article posits that the rapid adoption and revenue growth of AI are creating a massive financial bubble comparable to historical technological revolutions. While AI is genuinely transformative, the author argues that market valuations have exceeded fundamental support, driven by the 'Four O's' of overvaluation, overownership, overinvestment, and overleverage. The global economy is heavily dependent on AI growth, with the US, China, and Asian semiconductor hubs leading the stack. The author predicts that the bubble will eventually burst, causing significant economic shock, wiping out weaker players, and leading to a more consolidated and stable AI ecosystem.
The Real Lesson of the Iran War
The piece contends that while air superiority has historically been decisive against conventional armies, it has not succeeded in forcing political capitulation in conflicts such as Ukraine, Iran, and earlier wars. External support from China and Russia has helped Iran mitigate the impact of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. The article concludes that air campaigns alone are insufficient against a regime that can hide its assets and maintain control through repression, suggesting a need for a broader set of tools.
Chinese Robots Could Decide the AI Race
China is treating embodied AI—systems that combine AI with physical movement—as a national priority, linking robotics to economic growth, labor needs, military applications, and possible progress toward AGI. The article says Chinese firms already hold important supply-chain positions, while local governments support robotics companies through subsidies and investment. Unitree’s IPO and changing sales patterns suggest growing interest, although commercial viability and constrained public finances remain obstacles. The author warns that US leadership in frontier models may matter less if China deploys robots at scale and uses real-world data to improve them. Washington is urged to strengthen manufacturing, robotics investment, and partnerships with countries that have supply-chain advantages.
America Shouldn’t Let Go of the Middle East
The piece contends that U.S. overcommitment in the Middle East has been costly and counterproductive, citing the Iran war and past conflicts. It argues that while some interests have faded, core concerns—energy, nuclear nonproliferation, counterterrorism, and economic ties—remain vital. A full withdrawal is deemed unsustainable; instead, a more focused, diplomatic, and restrained approach is recommended.
Iran’s Theory of Victory
The article contends that U.S. bombing, sanctions, and a naval blockade have not brought Iran to its knees. Although the war has damaged infrastructure and worsened economic hardship, many Iranians have rallied around their country, and the article reports no widespread shortages. It argues that this nationalism has weakened prospects for domestic revolt and strengthened the government. Iranian leaders, despite differences over diplomacy, reject surrender and believe attacks on U.S. forces and disruption of regional commerce can secure sanctions relief and a reduced American military presence. The article warns that this strategy risks wider escalation and may further complicate negotiations.
Trump Is Gutting America’s Core Geopolitical Advantage
The article argues that President Trump’s high tariffs on Canadian goods, belittling remarks, and economic coercion toward Mexico are weakening the United States’ long‑standing geopolitical advantage. It traces how strong continental partnerships have historically underpinned U.S. security and economic prosperity, citing Reagan’s 1979 statement and the success of NAFTA. The piece warns that a weakened North American alliance could increase trans‑national crime, illegal immigration, and environmental challenges, ultimately diminishing U.S. global influence.
The Case for Economic Espionage
The article contends that the U.S. prohibition on economic espionage is outdated because national security increasingly depends on private-sector technology, while China continues to target American commercial innovation. It reviews historical U.S. restraint, the Obama administration’s 2014 directive and international commitments, and evidence that those commitments did not stop Chinese espionage. The author argues that warning firms about theft is insufficient and urges the government to share commercially valuable intelligence with strategically important companies. Because such sharing could distort competition or enable corruption, the article calls for clear eligibility rules and robust oversight.
The End of Gaza
The article assesses the year after the October 2025 Gaza cease-fire, arguing that key commitments on aid, basic services, Palestinian governance, Israeli withdrawal, and reconstruction remain largely unfulfilled. It reports continuing Israeli strikes, widespread displacement, restricted aid, and destruction of civilian infrastructure. Hamas’s resistance to disarmament contributed to delays, but the article places particular responsibility on Netanyahu’s government for rejecting a proposed sequence linking disarmament with Israeli withdrawal. It also criticizes the Trump administration for uneven enforcement and deference to Israel. The author argues that the impasse may serve Israeli hard-liners’ goal of making Gaza uninhabitable, while warning of renewed violence and damage to prospects for a two-state solution.