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- Marginal Revolution Read
My economics-rich Conversation with Gita Gopinath
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary: Gita Gopinath has spent the last several years inside the room where the world’s monetary plumbing gets fixed — or doesn’t. As first deputy managing director of the IMF and, before that, the Fund’s chief economist, she worked on sovereign debt restructuring, followed
- Marginal Revolution Read
From the Master of Industrial Organization
Believing that AI will be incorrigible leads us to proposing the wrong solutions, including ones which are likely to increase the danger than decrease it. I think that an AI pause is using the wrong method to fix an ill-posed problem. The point of a pause would be to research AI until we have a deep enough theoretical understanding as to predict what an AI will do. I think this goal will always elude us. I cannot conceive of what this deep theoretical understanding would look like; I don’t think anyone actually does.
- Marginal Revolution Read
Optimal liability for offensive and defensive AI
How much liability should AI providers bear when their services enable both attack and defence? Liability can improve welfare while increasing harm. Providers sell a common input to productive users, attackers and defenders. Within a defended contest, a higher common price reduces effort without changing attack success or attacker profits, saving resources and improving the
- Marginal Revolution Read
Wednesday assorted links
1. Diving northern gannets. 2. Guatemala update. 3. Tech-utopian project coming in Uruguay? 4. “Toy sales among adult-only households have now outpaced households with children for toy sales, growing 16% through June, according to a market research group.” 5. Do stock buybacks bring harm? 6. How AI competition works in China. 7. Economist column on AI risk and shorting the market (hint: ask the AGI what
- Marginal Revolution Read
The Price of Intelligence is Falling Rapidly
An amazing Epoch AI report from Emberson and Roodman: Over the past three years, the cost of a given level of AI performance has fallen an average of some 47% per quarter. That is a 13-fold drop every year – a faster rate than any other transformative technology in history. To give an example, OpenAI
- Marginal Revolution Read
What I’ve been reading
1. Constance Reid, Hilbert. We should all be reading more mathematics these days, right? Because the field is “on fire.” Hilbert is not a bad place to start, and I found this book clear and biographical in a good way. It is less on the math and more closely tied to broader German history. Soon
- Marginal Revolution Read
The economics of late grandmotherhood
We show how fertility delays compound across generations to raise age at first grandmotherhood. Under the 1960 first-birth schedule median grandmotherhood came at 44. Under the 2024 schedule it is 57, cutting the healthy years with grandchildren from 28 to 15. Longer life does not make up the loss of years when the grandmother is healthy enough to supply money and care.
- Marginal Revolution Read
Tuesday assorted links
1. Designing a FINRA for frontier AI. 2. Andrew Ng. 3. Some semi-skeptical notes on stablecoins, based on economic history. 4. Global views on fairness and redistribution. 5. Essays on whether AI will make management more valuable. 6. The real authorities on the California billionaire wealth tax. They are right in front of your eyes.
- Marginal Revolution Read
Dartmouth Provost okie-dokie
On Aug. 26, a Semafor investigation using Pangram to determine whether recent guest columns in major newspapers were written using artificial intelligence identified a column by Schnell as “100% AI-written.” Schnell’s column in The Washington Post — titled “Universities are fighting AI cheating. But there’s a deeper problem.” — argued that “a degree should distinguish what students can do
- Marginal Revolution Read
Banning self-recursive improvement in AI models?
Some people are suggesting this, including Ezra Klein. I do not understand how it is supposed to work. Put aside the issue of foregone innovations, let us say I seek to access an AI from overseas. Am I allowed to visit their website? So many sites have AI behind them, including Chinese open source AI.
- Marginal Revolution Read
Further results on AI and labor market reallocation
This paper documents how artificial intelligence has affected stocks and flows in the U.S. labor market. Combining CPS and JOLTS data with AI exposure and adoption measures from OpenAI and Lightcast, respectively, we construct labor force stocks, worker flows, and market tightness by AI exposure and adoption. Since the introduction of LLMs, workers with high
- Marginal Revolution Read
Monday assorted links
1. Avi Loeb video on UAPs. 2. “[The Mises] library now has a permanent independent home: https://freecapitalists.org/. It holds 945 books, 3,374 journal issues and 2,732 recorded lectures, all free, in PDF, EPUB and MOBI, with the rights recorded per work.” 3. “They invited me to come see it for myself at Sopchoppy’s annual worm grunting festival, which
- Marginal Revolution Read
The Tragedy of Nikole Hannah-Jones
Nikole Hannah-Jones famously sent her child to a predominantly black/lower-income public school in New York City. Now her child says she shouldn’t have been used as political fodder. The essay makes for hard reading and I acknowledge NHJ’s courage in writing about her mistakes and the cost to her child. The piece is raw and
- Marginal Revolution Read
Obama on agentic AI
Obama recently said: “If we are thinking about AI just in terms of how do we cure cancer or get better energy, you can do that without having agentic AI and having it just roaming free in the internet.” As Roon noted: “this sounds completely incoherent to me” From Rob Saker: An agent is a
- Marginal Revolution Read
Sunday assorted links
1. Nobel Laureates in support of the California billionaire wealth tax include Krugman, Acemoglu, Diamond, Stiglitz, Banerjee, and Duflo (FT). 2. Secretariat as GOAT. 3. Dead brains and the piano?? 4. “A real contribution of AI is showing the critical weaknesses of humans and human structures.” But can we take it? 5. When did the Chinese reach New Zealand? (speculative) 6. “Everyone needs to realize we are fighting the summation of the last 100 years of war that never got settled they just slowed down at times” 7. “
- Marginal Revolution Read
Muse - Marginal REVOLUTION
It is excellent. It has one of the best user interfaces I have seen on any product. The model is good and the speed and clarity exemplary. It integrates with your calendar and email, if that is want you want, very easily and smoothly. It all feels very…American. Kudos to the team!
- Marginal Revolution Read
Empathy gaps
I observed, for example, that when I got an invitation to travel to give a talk in a different time zone, it mattered what time zone I was in when I got the invitation. if well rested, in my home time zone, I would think, No big deal, about making a long trip and would likely accept. However, if I was jet-lagged in a different time zone when the invitation came in, and in reach with the misery of travel, I would be far more likely to decline.
- Marginal Revolution Read
UK productivity higher than we had thought
UK productivity rose at almost twice the pace previously estimated in the decade after the 2008 global financial crisis, according to new official figures that make Britain look much less of an international outlier. Output per hour worked, the main measure of labour productivity, grew by an average of 1.3 per cent per year between
- Marginal Revolution Read
The polity that is Singapore
…this month, Singapore launched a scheme promising actual cash to citizens as a reward for logging reading time on a government website. It’s unlikely to make you megabucks – you have to rack up 50 reading sessions of at least 15 minutes to earn one Singapore dollar (£0.59), with only one logged session allowed per day. But behavioural
- Marginal Revolution Read
Saturday assorted links
1. Critique of Villaroel on UAPs. 2. Bergen County (Korean) fact of the day. 3. AIs cracking superforecasting. 4. Gregor Benko, RIP (NYT). 5. Joshua Saxe on the increase in cyber risk. 6. Lichtenstein political infighting heats up (FT). 7. Risk, the biggie. And on the Suwalki gap.
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