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The Middle East’s Quiet Liberal Revolution

Mansoor Moaddel

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AI-generated overview

Drawing on repeated surveys in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, the author argues that support for liberal values grew between 2000 and 2020. The surveys measured expressive individualism, gender equality, and secular politics, finding declines in support for Islamic government and sharia alongside increased support for secular governance and women’s equality. Egypt saw sharp gains in support for separating religion and politics and for Western-style government. In Turkey, national identification rose as Muslim identification and frequent mosque attendance declined. The article suggests religious and authoritarian domination may have helped produce these attitudes, while noting that value shifts can precede but do not guarantee institutional change.

What’s discussed

  • The author supervised face-to-face surveys in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey between 2000 and 2020, conducting five surveys in Egypt, three in Iran, seven in Iraq, two in Saudi Arabia, and three in Turkey.
  • The surveys assessed expressive individualism, gender equality, and secular politics using 15 questions and combined responses into a liberalism index scored from 1 to 4.
  • In Egypt, support for separating religion and politics rose from 44 percent in 2007 to 81 percent in 2020; support for Western-style government rose from 30 percent to 82 percent over the same period.
  • In Egypt, the share who considered Islamic government very good fell from 25 percent in 2011 to 16 percent in 2020, while the share who considered sharia very important fell from 28 percent to 18 percent.
  • In Saudi Arabia, the share who considered implementing sharia very important fell from 73 percent in 2003 to 35 percent in 2011.
  • In Turkey, respondents primarily identifying as Muslim fell from 64 percent in 2001 to 24 percent in 2020, while those identifying foremost as Turkish citizens rose from 34 percent to 63 percent.
  • In Turkey, respondents reporting mosque attendance more than once a week fell from 19 percent in 2001 to 11 percent in 2020.
  • In Egypt, the liberalism index rose from 2.09 to 2.28 among men and from 2.08 to 2.39 among women; in Turkey, it rose from 2.64 to 2.88 among men and from 2.70 to 2.91 among women.
  • The article reports that tens of thousands of protesters were killed by Iran’s security forces during protests in 2025–26.

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